The Big Idea

Playing Hardball: The Looming Threat of an MLB Lockout

As the crack of the bat and the roar of the crowd define the summer months, a storm is quietly brewing on the horizon for Major League Baseball. While the 2025 season is in full swing, the undercurrents of labor negotiations are already pulling the league and its players toward a potentially contentious showdown. With the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) set to expire on December 1, 2026, the sports business world is bracing for what many see as an almost inevitable work stoppage.

The Inevitable Showdown?

The consensus among industry insiders, from Commissioner Rob Manfred to MLB Players Association (MLBPA) Executive Director Tony Clark, is that a lockout is not just possible, but probable. Both sides have publicly acknowledged the likelihood of a work stoppage, framing it as a near-formality in the negotiation process. An offseason lockout, which would freeze all transactions, now seems to be the expected opening move by the owners to apply leverage as soon as the current deal expires.

While an offseason lockout might be considered "pro forma" by some, the real concern is whether it will extend into the regular season, costing the league games, revenue, and fan goodwill. The answer to that question will depend on the league and the union finding common ground on several deeply divisive economic issues.

The Battleground: Key Issues at Stake

The upcoming CBA negotiations will be a battle over the financial soul of baseball. Several hot-button topics are set to dominate the discussions, each with the potential to derail the process.

1. The Salary Cap and Floor: This is the third rail of MLB labor talks. For decades, MLB has been the only major North American professional sports league without a salary cap, a distinction the players have fought fiercely to maintain. Owners, particularly those in smaller markets, argue that a cap, paired with a salary floor, is essential for competitive balance. They point to the massive spending disparities, with teams like the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers boasting payrolls that dwarf those of teams like the Miami Marlins. In 2025, the spending gap between the highest and lowest payrolls reached an all-time high.

The MLBPA, however, views a salary cap as an artificial restriction on player earnings and has historically been united in its opposition. They successfully fought off a cap during the infamous 1994-95 strike and have shown no signs of softening their stance. The union argues that the issue isn't overspending by a few teams, but rather a lack of spending by others. While the MLBPA is not opposed to a salary floor, which would compel lower-payroll teams to invest more in their rosters, they will not accept it if it's tied to a cap.

2. Deferred Money in Contracts: A more recent, but equally contentious, issue is the explosion of heavily deferred contracts. Pioneered most dramatically by the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have over $1 billion in deferred salaries on their books, this practice allows teams to sign players to record-breaking deals while minimizing the contract's present-day value for luxury tax purposes.

This financial maneuver gives wealthier teams a significant advantage. They can offer larger total compensation packages and more effectively manage luxury tax implications, a loophole that smaller-market teams cannot exploit, as they must prove they can fund the future payments. Commissioner Manfred has expressed concerns about the "problematic" use of such large deferrals, suggesting that new regulations could be on the table. For players, however, these deals represent a new frontier for maximizing career earnings and offer tax advantages, making it an unlikely concession.

3. The RSN Collapse: The crumbling of the Regional Sports Network (RSN) model is a critical and destabilizing factor. For years, lucrative local television deals created enormous revenue streams for teams, but the rise of cord-cutting has decimated this model. Diamond Sports Group (DSG), owner of the Bally Sports RSNs, filed for bankruptcy, throwing the local media rights for 14 MLB teams into chaos.

This collapse directly impacts the CBA by exacerbating the revenue gap between teams and fueling MLB's long-term vision to centralize all media rights. The league sees this crisis as an opportunity to pool media revenue and distribute it more evenly, a plan that will face resistance from large-market teams and become a central, highly contentious topic in negotiations.

4. Other Contentious Points: Beyond the headline issues, other topics will include:

• Playoff Expansion: The league is expected to push for expanding the postseason from 12 to 14 teams to increase valuable broadcast inventory. The players will likely only agree to this in exchange for significant economic concessions.

• International Draft: Owners have long desired an international draft to control costs for amateur talent from abroad. This is strongly opposed by many Latin American players and the union, which sees it as a major bargaining chip.

What Happens in a Lockout?

Should the owners impose a lockout as expected, the league would enter a complete transaction freeze for all players on the 40-man roster. This means no trades, no free-agent signings, and no communication between teams and players.

• Player Contracts: During a lockout, players are not paid their base salaries if the work stoppage extends into the season. However, any signing bonuses or previously agreed-upon deferred salary payments are still due. For example, a player with a deferred payment scheduled for July 1st would receive it, even if no games are being played.

• Facilities and Rehab: Players are locked out of all team facilities, meaning they cannot work out or, more critically, rehab injuries with team medical staff.

• Minor Leagues: The minor league season would likely proceed as scheduled, as those players are not part of the MLBPA.

A Look at History

Baseball has a long and painful history of work stoppages. The most recent was a 99-day lockout ahead of the 2022 season, which ended just in time to preserve a full 162-game schedule. Before that, the 1994-95 players' strike lasted 232 days, leading to the cancellation of the World Series and causing lasting damage to the sport's popularity. Other stoppages have varied in length, from a 32-day lockout in 1990 that delayed Opening Day by a week to a two-day strike in 1985.

With the battle lines already being drawn two years in advance, the stage is set for a protracted and potentially damaging conflict. While both sides understand the stakes, the philosophical chasm on core economic principles is vast. Fans and businesses alike can only hope that a shared desire to protect the game's recent positive momentum will be enough to pull baseball back from the brink before another season is lost.

Media

A Phoenix Rises?

Just a year ago, the Pac-12, the venerable "Conference of Champions," was left for dead on the college sports landscape. After a mass exodus of ten member schools to rival conferences, only Oregon State and Washington State remained, tasked with the monumental challenge of rebuilding from the ashes. Now, in a crucial step toward resurrection, the conference has secured a new media rights deal with CBS Sports, a move that provides not just a lifeline but a vital tool in its desperate fight to regain FBS status and rebuild its brand.

A Beacon of Stability: The CBS Partnership

The Pac-12 and CBS Sports recently announced an extension of their media partnership through the 2030-31 season. This new agreement establishes CBS as the primary long-term media partner for the rebuilt conference. Key terms of the deal include:

• National Exposure: The main CBS network will broadcast at least three regular-season football games and the conference championship game annually. The men's basketball championship will also receive a national slot.

• Streaming Presence: All games broadcast on CBS will also be streamed on Paramount+, increasing accessibility.

• Cable Network Content: Additional regular-season games in both football and basketball will be featured on the CBS Sports Network.

While the financial terms were not disclosed, the significance of this deal transcends dollars and cents. For a conference on life support, securing a partnership with a premier media brand like CBS provides a much-needed injection of stability and legitimacy. It sends a clear signal to potential expansion candidates: the Pac-12 is not only viable but has a guaranteed home on national television.

The Race Against the Clock: Expansion

This media deal is the carrot, but the stick is an unforgiving NCAA deadline. To maintain its status as a Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) conference, the Pac-12 must have a minimum of eight full-time member schools by the 2026-27 academic year. Currently, the conference is one short of that magic number.

The future Pac-12 lineup, set to officially compete together in 2026, includes:

• Legacy Members: Oregon State, Washington State

• New Members (from Mountain West): Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Utah State

• Non-Football Member: Gonzaga (for basketball and other sports)

This leaves one critical football-playing spot to fill, and the clock is ticking loudly. The conference must secure its eighth member to not only satisfy NCAA bylaws but also to present a complete, competitive product to its new media partners and the college football world.

The Candidates: A Hunt for the Eighth Spot

With the CBS deal providing a concrete vision for the future, Pac-12 Commissioner Teresa Gould can now approach potential members with a tangible offer of exposure and stability. The speculation on who will fill that final slot has centered on a few key candidates:

• Texas State: Widely considered the frontrunner, the Bobcats have reportedly been in deep discussions with the conference. Adding Texas State would give the Pac-12 a crucial foothold in the talent-rich state of Texas and access to the burgeoning Austin-San Antonio media market. The university is one of the fastest-growing in the state and is coming off its best football season as an FBS program. A significant hurdle was the Sun Belt's exit fee, which was set to double if notice wasn't given by July 1, adding urgency to the negotiations.

• American Athletic Conference (AAC) Schools: Programs like Tulane, Memphis, and UTSA have been part of the conversation. These schools offer strong recent performance in football and basketball and would elevate the conference's competitive profile. However, the primary obstacle is the AAC's steep exit fee (reportedly over $25 million with short notice), which has so far kept these schools from making a move.

• Other Mountain West Options: UNLV was a name previously in the mix and remains a geographic fit, though they opted to stay in the Mountain West during the last round of realignment.

The Rebirth: A Long Road Back to Prominence

The journey for the Pac-12 is far from over. This new iteration of the conference is, for now, a shadow of its former self. But the CBS deal is a foundational piece of a deliberate, strategic rebuild. It provides the necessary legitimacy to complete its roster and survive as an FBS entity.

The mission now is to transform survival into a genuine rebirth. By securing its eighth member, the "new" Pac-12 can shift its focus from existential crisis to building a competitive and compelling conference. The goal is no longer just to exist, but to re-establish the "Conference of Champions" as a legitimate and respected brand in the turbulent world of college athletics, proving that reports of its demise were indeed greatly exaggerated.

By The Numbers

Numbers That Jumped Off the Page

5- ESPN just renewed its media rights deal with the Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) for 5 more years, but that’s not all. It went ahead and bought a minority stake. For the PLL, it's a massive vote of confidence from the biggest player in sports media.

16.4 Million- Much was made about the poor ratings of the NBA Finals towards the beginning of the series, but thanks to the theatrics of going to game seven, fortunes rebounded. Game seven recorded a 6-year finals high with 16.4 million viewers, proving yet again the two best words in sports remain the best marketing any league can hope for.

$269 Million- According to Sportico, the average value of a WNBA franchise has grown 180% compared to last year, vaulting to a staggering $269 million. Not surprisingly, the Indiana Fever holds the top spot for year-over-year growth at a 273% increase in a single year, up to $335 million.

Pulse Check

Last week, we asked BTS readers, “If you were gifted an expansion franchise (with all the struggles and costs of developing the fanbase) in a league of your choosing, which one would you pick?” Here’s what they thought.

The Highlight Reel

Catch up on our most-read articles from previous weeks

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