2031.

This is the year the already precarious state of college football as we know it likely comes crumbling down. The past few years of conference realignment, including the abandonment of the regional conference system, have proven that the Big Ten and SEC conferences' war chests and money-making opportunities are too alluring to refuse. 2031 isn’t just another year on the calendar; it’s the perfect storm of factors that will further cement their domination of the sport.

Firstly, the College Football Playoff in its current iteration only runs until the 2031 season, and rumor has it that the two Goliaths of college football are pushing for automatic bids, potentially four for each of them, in the next version we see. Given the national airtime and importance of these playoff games, the addition of four guaranteed participants puts these two conferences into a different tier altogether, effectively burying the not-so-long-ago notion of a Power 5 and replacing it with the cold, hard reality of a Power 2. The rest of college football? They’ll be left fighting over the crumbs.

This potential shift in playoff structure isn’t the only thing at work, however. The Big 12, a conference that saw its most prominent and nationally relevant brands (Texas and Oklahoma) bolt for greener pastures just last year, has its grant of rights expiring. This would allow all the schools to potentially leave in hopes of joining one of the two super conferences—assuming they get an invite. This doesn’t mean the conference itself would dissolve, but it might go the way of the PAC-12, reborn with an almost entirely new roster of schools clinging to the branding that previous iterations of the conference spent decades building.

The Big 12 isn’t the only one with this issue, either. The ACC has seen some internal strife from member schools Florida State and Clemson lately. The two football powerhouses were locked in legal battles with the conference until recently, in an attempt to also make a break for the SEC. With the lawsuits settled, the ACC has now agreed to uneven revenue distribution based on competitive success and TV ratings. But more importantly, there’s a countdown clock. Beginning in 2026, there is a yearly decreasing exit cost for these schools, allowing them to leave as long as they are willing to pay the ever-shrinking ransom before their 2036 grant of rights with the conference is released. By the 2030-2031 season, that figure will be as low as $75 million, which, in the world of college football finances, is basically couch cushion money. Expect Florida State and Clemson to make their grand exit around then, leaving yet another conference looking for answers. 

While the 2031 season is still a few years away, the Big Ten and SEC seem to be holding all the cards. For the other conferences, it’s going to take some Herculean effort, a sprinkle of magic, and maybe a few sacrificial offerings to the football gods to change the trajectory. Otherwise, they’ll be left watching from the sidelines as the Power 2 rewrite the rules of the game.