As the crack of the bat and the roar of the crowd define the summer months, a storm is quietly brewing on the horizon for Major League Baseball. While the 2025 season is in full swing, the undercurrents of labor negotiations are already pulling the league and its players toward a potentially contentious showdown. With the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) set to expire on December 1, 2026, the sports business world is bracing for what many see as an almost inevitable work stoppage.

The Inevitable Showdown?

The consensus among industry insiders, from Commissioner Rob Manfred to MLB Players Association (MLBPA) Executive Director Tony Clark, is that a lockout is not just possible, but probable. Both sides have publicly acknowledged the likelihood of a work stoppage, framing it as a near-formality in the negotiation process. An offseason lockout, which would freeze all transactions, now seems to be the expected opening move by the owners to apply leverage as soon as the current deal expires.

While an offseason lockout might be considered "pro forma" by some, the real concern is whether it will extend into the regular season, costing the league games, revenue, and fan goodwill. The answer to that question will depend on the league and the union finding common ground on several deeply divisive economic issues.

The Battleground: Key Issues at Stake

The upcoming CBA negotiations will be a battle over the financial soul of baseball. Several hot-button topics are set to dominate the discussions, each with the potential to derail the process.

1. The Salary Cap and Floor: This is the third rail of MLB labor talks. For decades, MLB has been the only major North American professional sports league without a salary cap, a distinction the players have fought fiercely to maintain. Owners, particularly those in smaller markets, argue that a cap, paired with a salary floor, is essential for competitive balance. They point to the massive spending disparities, with teams like the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers boasting payrolls that dwarf those of teams like the Miami Marlins. In 2025, the spending gap between the highest and lowest payrolls reached an all-time high.

The MLBPA, however, views a salary cap as an artificial restriction on player earnings and has historically been united in its opposition. They successfully fought off a cap during the infamous 1994-95 strike and have shown no signs of softening their stance. The union argues that the issue isn't overspending by a few teams, but rather a lack of spending by others. While the MLBPA is not opposed to a salary floor, which would compel lower-payroll teams to invest more in their rosters, they will not accept it if it's tied to a cap.

2. Deferred Money in Contracts: A more recent, but equally contentious, issue is the explosion of heavily deferred contracts. Pioneered most dramatically by the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have over $1 billion in deferred salaries on their books, this practice allows teams to sign players to record-breaking deals while minimizing the contract's present-day value for luxury tax purposes.

This financial maneuver gives wealthier teams a significant advantage. They can offer larger total compensation packages and more effectively manage luxury tax implications, a loophole that smaller-market teams cannot exploit, as they must prove they can fund the future payments. Commissioner Manfred has expressed concerns about the "problematic" use of such large deferrals, suggesting that new regulations could be on the table. For players, however, these deals represent a new frontier for maximizing career earnings and offer tax advantages, making it an unlikely concession.

3. The RSN Collapse: The crumbling of the Regional Sports Network (RSN) model is a critical and destabilizing factor. For years, lucrative local television deals created enormous revenue streams for teams, but the rise of cord-cutting has decimated this model. Diamond Sports Group (DSG), owner of the Bally Sports RSNs, filed for bankruptcy, throwing the local media rights for 14 MLB teams into chaos.

This collapse directly impacts the CBA by exacerbating the revenue gap between teams and fueling MLB's long-term vision to centralize all media rights. The league sees this crisis as an opportunity to pool media revenue and distribute it more evenly, a plan that will face resistance from large-market teams and become a central, highly contentious topic in negotiations.

4. Other Contentious Points: Beyond the headline issues, other topics will include:

• Playoff Expansion: The league is expected to push for expanding the postseason from 12 to 14 teams to increase valuable broadcast inventory. The players will likely only agree to this in exchange for significant economic concessions.

• International Draft: Owners have long desired an international draft to control costs for amateur talent from abroad. This is strongly opposed by many Latin American players and the union, which sees it as a major bargaining chip.

What Happens in a Lockout?

Should the owners impose a lockout as expected, the league would enter a complete transaction freeze for all players on the 40-man roster. This means no trades, no free-agent signings, and no communication between teams and players.

• Player Contracts: During a lockout, players are not paid their base salaries if the work stoppage extends into the season. However, any signing bonuses or previously agreed-upon deferred salary payments are still due. For example, a player with a deferred payment scheduled for July 1st would receive it, even if no games are being played.

• Facilities and Rehab: Players are locked out of all team facilities, meaning they cannot work out or, more critically, rehab injuries with team medical staff.

• Minor Leagues: The minor league season would likely proceed as scheduled, as those players are not part of the MLBPA.

A Look at History

Baseball has a long and painful history of work stoppages. The most recent was a 99-day lockout ahead of the 2022 season, which ended just in time to preserve a full 162-game schedule. Before that, the 1994-95 players' strike lasted 232 days, leading to the cancellation of the World Series and causing lasting damage to the sport's popularity. Other stoppages have varied in length, from a 32-day lockout in 1990 that delayed Opening Day by a week to a two-day strike in 1985.

With the battle lines already being drawn two years in advance, the stage is set for a protracted and potentially damaging conflict. While both sides understand the stakes, the philosophical chasm on core economic principles is vast. Fans and businesses alike can only hope that a shared desire to protect the game's recent positive momentum will be enough to pull baseball back from the brink before another season is lost.